Anthropic's Pre-IPO Trading Volume Reaches $643 Million Amid Valuation Concerns

Anthropic's upcoming IPO has sparked significant activity in the crypto derivatives market, with pre-IPO perpetual contracts linked to the AI company generating $643 million in trading volume across 12 crypto venues by September 21. This figure surpasses the $590 million recorded for all of August, according to Binance Research.

As of mid-September, approximately $80 million in Anthropic-linked open interest was outstanding, with Binance reporting an 88% increase in open interest over 30 days, climbing from $16.6 million to $31.2 million. This growth has occurred without any publicly traded shares to anchor the market, as traders engage in cash-settled contracts that reflect a crypto market estimate of Anthropic's value.

The situation will become more complex once the company officially lists its shares, potentially introducing a public price that could diverge significantly from the synthetic valuations currently in play. Anthropic's confidential draft IPO filing was announced in June, but recent reports suggest that the debut may be delayed beyond the November U.S. midterm elections.

Binance currently determines the mark price for its Anthropic perpetual contracts based on recent trading activity. This method allows for position valuation prior to the establishment of a public share price, but the dynamics will shift post-IPO. The exchange has indicated it can transition pre-IPO perpetual contracts into standard equity-linked contracts once a stable stock-price index is available.

The potential for a repricing event looms as traders holding positions through the IPO may face significant adjustments if the crypto-implied valuation diverges from the public market price. The combined open interest in Anthropic and OpenAI pre-IPO perpetuals has exceeded $160 million as of mid-September, indicating a growing trend of crypto venues facilitating investment in private AI companies ahead of traditional market access.

Anthropic's pre-IPO contracts have already demonstrated sensitivity to IPO expectations, with price fluctuations reflecting market sentiment regarding the company's listing timeline. The upcoming IPO will serve as a crucial test for the crypto market's ability to accurately value private companies in the face of public market realities.