Bernstein Forecasts Bitcoin to Reach $150K by 2027 and $300K by 2029

Wall Street research firm Bernstein has released new projections for Bitcoin, suggesting it could reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and approximately $300,000 by the end of 2029. This forecast comes as Bitcoin trades around $80,000, having recently surged by about 25%.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani emphasized that these figures represent Bernstein's base case, with even more bullish scenarios predicting Bitcoin could hit $500,000 in 2029. The firm maintains a long-term target of $1 million by 2033, unchanged since mid-2024.

Bernstein attributes its optimistic outlook to two main structural forces: the increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin and the impact of currency debasement. The firm noted that ETF outflows during Bitcoin corrections have remained below 5%, indicating that current investors are less likely to panic sell compared to past market cycles.

Moreover, Bernstein highlights that governments facing significant sovereign debt are more inclined to tolerate inflation, making Bitcoin—a fixed-supply asset—more appealing to long-term investors.

The updated forecasts reflect a shift in buyer demographics, moving away from retail investors towards institutional buyers and ETF vehicles. This change suggests that Bitcoin's future price corrections may resemble those in traditional equity markets rather than the severe downturns seen in previous cycles.

Bernstein's analysis indicates that Bitcoin could capture a significant share of capital currently held in gold, bonds, and cash equivalents as inflation hedges. The timeline for reaching $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 by 2029 implies a gradual accumulation process rather than a sudden price spike, supported by ongoing government borrowing and declining real interest rates.

Chhugani's note also suggests that the previous Bitcoin cycle playbook may no longer apply, indicating a more mature market landscape.

Latest Insights on Bitcoin Forecasts

• Bernstein has set a Bitcoin target of $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 by 2029, driven by rising US government debt rather than the halving.
• The US officially crossed $40 trillion in debt on August 19, a figure that has more than doubled in the last decade.
• Bernstein analysts predict that the end of four decades of falling interest rates will lead to increased borrowing and deficits.
• The firm suggests that the US may allow currency devaluation instead of cutting spending, benefiting assets like Bitcoin and gold.
• If institutional adoption accelerates, Bernstein models a potential Bitcoin price of $500,000 by 2029 and $1 million by 2033.
• Bitcoin experienced a significant price jump following a Treasury announcement, rising from mid-$60,000s to about $81,200 in a week.
• Recent market behavior indicates a shift towards the "debasement trade," where investors favor scarce assets amid fears of currency dilution.
• Bitcoin's price has been influenced by recent bond market activity, including a notable increase in long-dated bond buybacks by the Treasury.
• Despite a recent rally, long-term holders have been selling into the price increase as Bitcoin approached $80,000.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen their strongest inflows in 10 months, which could impact future price movements.

New Insights from HIVE Digital Technologies

• HIVE Digital Technologies projects mining margins of 36% at a $60K Bitcoin price, increasing to 52% at $80K.
• The company reported $79.1 million in quarterly revenue for Q1 FY2027, a 73% increase year-over-year.
• Bitcoin mining contributed $72.1 million to HIVE's revenue, with the company mining 1,004 BTC during the quarter.
• HIVE's operational hashrate is approximately 24 EH/s, with an installed fleet capacity of 25.3 EH/s.
• Gross operating margin for the quarter was $24.2 million.
• HIVE's push into high-performance computing and AI infrastructure added $7 million to its revenue, accounting for roughly 9% of total revenue.
• HIVE's hydroelectric power strategy leverages Paraguay's surplus electricity, resulting in significantly lower operational costs.
• The company has rebranded from HIVE Blockchain Technologies to HIVE Digital Technologies to emphasize its green energy credentials and diversification efforts.