Bitcoin Correlation with US Equities Hits Two-Year Low Amid ETF Market Changes

The relationship between Bitcoin and US equities appears to be weakening significantly, with recent data indicating that the correlation between the two has dropped to its lowest point since the November 2022 FTX collapse. According to Santiment, the 30-day rolling correlation fell to -0.299 in December 2025 and stabilized around 0.18 in January 2026.

This decoupling is evident as Bitcoin's price fell approximately 43% from late August 2025 to early 2026, while the S&P 500 gained about 7% during the same period. In contrast, gold surged by 51%. After reaching an all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin saw a pullback exceeding 50% by mid-2026. The three-month rolling correlations have also drifted near zero, suggesting that this trend is not merely a short-term fluctuation.

Analysts attribute this shift primarily to post-ETF deleveraging. Following the initial excitement surrounding spot Bitcoin ETFs, the derivatives market has cooled, leading to reduced leverage that makes Bitcoin's price movements less susceptible to the macroeconomic triggers that typically influence equity markets. BlackRock, which manages the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, has reported a long-term correlation of just 0.18 between Bitcoin and the S&P 500.

Historically, correlations between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have averaged between 0.25 and 0.32, with spikes during financial crises. The current readings below 0.20 indicate a significant departure from this trend.

New Developments in Bitcoin Holdings

An investment firm, Strive (ASST), has recently acquired 1,800 BTC for $143 million, averaging $79,431 per Bitcoin. This purchase increases their total Bitcoin holdings to 23,156 BTC, valued at approximately $1.76 billion at current market prices.

Strive is now recognized as the fifth-largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin. This acquisition follows a period of inactivity since June 22nd, during which the firm did not buy or sell any Bitcoin.

Additionally, another firm, Strategy, has accumulated 4,603 Bitcoin at an average price of $80,318 per BTC, totaling $370 million. Strategy has also sold $432 million worth of Bitcoin as part of its monetization program to enhance cash reserves and support dividends.

New Developments in Bitcoin Market Dynamics

Strategy’s Bitcoin liquidation price is confirmed to be zero, as stated by CEO Phong Le. The company holds over 840,000 BTC and has no net debt, eliminating the risk of forced liquidation.

As of late August 2026, Strategy has approximately $6.69 billion in dollar liquidity, which includes a $5.1 billion USD reserve and $1.59 billion in flexible cash, effectively matching its $6.75 billion in convertible debt obligations.

The company recently raised around $2 billion through common stock sales, enhancing its cash position and allowing it to support preferred stock dividends and potential buybacks without relying on Bitcoin sales.

Strategy's financial health significantly impacts the broader crypto market, as its inability to be forced to sell Bitcoin alleviates potential downward pressure during market stress events.

For MSTR shareholders, the near-zero net leverage position alters the risk profile of the stock, while convertible debt holders benefit from a company capable of paying off bonds from cash reserves.