Bitcoin Defies Trends with 6.14% Gain Amid Rising US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is set for its best month since June, climbing nearly 2% in September as the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance. Traditionally, a stronger dollar tends to pressure Bitcoin (BTC), yet the largest cryptocurrency has defied expectations with a 6.14% increase this month.

As of September 29, the DXY reached 101.61, its highest level since late July, reflecting the Fed's recent rate hike and ongoing discussions about further tightening. Fed officials, including Governor Michael Barr and New York Fed President John Williams, have indicated that additional rate increases may be necessary to combat inflation.

Historically, Bitcoin has moved inversely to the dollar, making its recent performance particularly noteworthy. September has typically been a challenging month for Bitcoin, averaging a loss of 2.42%. However, this year marks a significant deviation from that trend.

Bitcoin's resilience is underscored by key technical indicators. On September 20, it closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time since November 2025, a signal that has historically indicated bear market lows. Additionally, a golden cross on September 8, following an extended period below its 200-day average, suggests potential for stronger rallies ahead.

Looking forward, October is historically Bitcoin's strongest month, with an average return of 14.71%. Traders are now focused on upcoming economic indicators, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the monthly jobs report, which could influence future price movements.

As the dollar continues its ascent, the question remains whether Bitcoin can maintain its upward trajectory amidst a shifting economic landscape.

New Developments

Bitcoin has surged above $85,000 following the release of the US August PCE inflation data, which came in at 3.4%, lower than the anticipated 3.7%. Additionally, the Core PCE inflation rate dropped to 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%. This positive inflation news has contributed to Bitcoin reaching its highest price since late January.

New Facts

• Bitcoin topped $85,000 following the release of new US inflation data.
• The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose to 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.7% in July.
• Core PCE increased by 3.0%, which was below the expected 3.3% consensus.
• The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, marking its first hike since 2023.
• Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 2.2% in the second quarter, surpassing the forecast of 1.5%.
• Consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by 0.6% in August, the largest monthly gain since March 2025.