Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge Amid Market Rally, Analysts Highlight Key Levels

Bitcoin's recent price movements have been closely tied to the performance of U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which attracted over $241 million in investments last week. This marks the third consecutive week of positive inflows, contributing to a nearly 7% increase in Bitcoin's price over the past month.

According to Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, while the current rally has been supported by lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, stronger market flows are necessary to confirm a move towards the $90,000-$93,000 range. The probability of an October rate hike has dropped significantly, from 51% to about 19%, following disappointing payroll growth.

Despite the positive ETF inflows, Bitcoin's price has struggled to maintain levels above $87,000, indicating that profit-taking and supply issues are absorbing institutional demand. The recent ETF activity has seen fluctuations, with a peak of nearly $999 million in daily net inflows on September 21, followed by a decline in institutional buying.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust remains the leading ETF, with cumulative net inflows nearing $66 billion. Zhang emphasized that for a convincing price breakout, sustained ETF inflows and stronger spot buying are essential, alongside a daily or weekly close above approximately $87,400. Key upside targets include $90,000 and $93,000, while downside levels are set at $84,000 and $82,000.

As of now, Bitcoin's price has dipped below $86,000, reflecting a broader market trend where most altcoins have also seen declines. The last time Bitcoin traded above $90,000 was in January.

New Insights on Bitcoin and Economic Indicators

The US services prices gauge reached a four-year high of 74.0 in September, up from 72.6 in August, indicating rising input costs despite a slowdown in growth.

The Institute for Supply Management's services report highlighted that the headline services PMI eased to 54.9, while business activity dropped to 56.5, both remaining above the 50 expansion threshold.

Employment figures showed a slight expansion, rising from 47.8 to 50.1 after two months of contraction.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted on October 1 that inflation risks are tilted upward, emphasizing that future rate adjustments will depend on economic data and outlook.

Bitcoin traded near $85,580 on October 6, reflecting a 0.04% decrease over 24 hours, with no immediate reaction identified to the ISM release.

New Insights from Coinbase Asset Management

Anthony Bassili, the president of Coinbase Asset Management, has set a Bitcoin price target of over $300,000 by the year 2030. He elaborated on the expectation that Bitcoin's cycle returns will diminish from a larger base, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

Bassili also discussed the ongoing trend of Bitcoin achieving parity with gold in the long term, highlighting the evolving relationship between these two assets.