Bitcoin Halving Clock Reaches 62%: Implications for the Bear Market

Bitcoin has now reached the 62% mark in its current halving cycle, a point where previous bear markets have either bottomed or approached their lows. As of today, Bitcoin is trading near $83,100, approximately 34% below its peak in October 2025 and about 44% above its low in July.

Current Halving Cycle Progress

The Bitcoin network is currently at block 970,344, with the next halving set to occur at block 1,050,000, which is 79,656 blocks away. At the average pace of one block every 10 minutes, this suggests a halving date around April 2028. This upcoming event will reduce the block reward from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.

Historical Context

Analysts have noted that the 62% mark has historically coincided with significant price movements. For instance, in early 2015, Bitcoin hit its bear market low shortly after reaching this point. Similarly, in late 2022, the price dropped to around $15,500 following the FTX collapse.

Current Market Analysis

Trader Jesse Olson has observed that in previous cycles, Bitcoin typically reaches its peak before day 550 and its bottom around day 900. As today marks day 900, the current cycle has already seen a rebound from a July low of approximately $57,800. However, caution remains, as the 2018 cycle saw a significant drop after reaching the 62% mark.

Future Considerations

While some analysts believe the bear market may be over if the July low holds, others warn of potential retests that could bring prices back toward that level. Binance Research has indicated that past rebounds often revisit their lows, and the current cycle's drawdown has been less severe than in previous bear markets.