Bitcoin Shows Hidden Uptrend Signal Despite Significant Drop in Holder Buying

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $82,300, reflecting a 28% increase over the past three months despite a recent decline. A hidden momentum signal on the daily chart suggests that the uptrend could persist, although there is a notable drop in buying activity from long-term holders, which has decreased by 96%.

Market Dynamics

Between September 2 and October 8, Bitcoin recorded a higher low on its daily chart. During this same period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell from approximately 65 to 47, indicating a lower low. This combination is identified as a hidden bullish divergence, suggesting that while momentum has cooled, the overall trend remains intact.

Supporting this analysis, selling volume has increased since October 6, though the volume on October 8 was about 18% lower than the peak seen on October 2. This indicates that while sellers are active, their impact is lessening.

Decline in Holder Buying

The Hodler Net Position Change, a metric from Glassnode that tracks the monthly change in coins held by long-term holders, peaked at 25,734 BTC on September 20 but plummeted to just 1,051 BTC by October 8. This marks the weakest positive reading in three months, highlighting a significant slowdown in accumulation by long-term holders.

Despite this decline, Bitcoin's price has managed to hold above key levels, bouncing from a low of $75,041 on September 15 and finding support at $80,383 on October 8. Analysts suggest that reclaiming the $88,086 level could attract more buyers, while a drop below $80,383 would invalidate the current bullish divergence.

Market Outlook

While the hidden bullish divergence indicates potential for continued upward movement, the current quietness among holders and funds raises concerns. A daily close above $83,325 would be a positive sign, but a fall below $80,383 could lead to further declines.