Bitcoin's Correlation with Bond Yields Drops, Diverging from Gold Trends

Bitcoin's relationship with bond yields has shifted significantly, as recent data indicates a near-zero correlation with the 10-year US Treasury yield. As of early September 2026, Bitcoin's 90-day rolling correlation stands at -0.17, suggesting that it is largely unaffected by rising bond yields, unlike gold, which has a correlation of -0.41.

This divergence is particularly notable given the current economic backdrop, where the 30-year Treasury yield has surged above 5%, reaching multi-year highs. Despite these pressures on traditional assets, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience, trading within a range of approximately $63,000 to $86,000 throughout 2026.

Interestingly, while Bitcoin is decoupling from Treasury yields, it is increasingly aligning with gold, with a 90-day correlation of 0.59, the highest since 2020. This shift suggests that Bitcoin may no longer behave like a leveraged version of gold, prompting institutional investors to reconsider their portfolio strategies.

As correlations remain unstable, the recent changes indicate that Bitcoin could serve as a valuable diversifier in investment portfolios, particularly if traditional assets like bonds and gold continue to face challenges.

Recent Developments in Bond Yields and Emerging Markets

• The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.11% on September 23, marking its highest level since 2007.
• Yield differentials between US Treasuries and local-currency sovereign bonds in emerging Asia have widened to near-record extremes.
• Malaysia’s 10-year bond is trading at its widest discount to US Treasuries since 2007.
• Indonesia and Thailand are experiencing similar historical lows in their bond yields.
• Persistent inflation concerns, elevated oil prices, and expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve are driving US yields higher.
• Strong US economic growth data is contributing to the rising yields, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts by the Fed.
• In August, investors warned that sustained 5% yields on the 10-year could lead to significant capital outflows from emerging markets.
• The last notable spike above 5% occurred in October 2023, causing disruptions in developing-market debt.
• Regional Asian bond yields are rising due to oil-price volatility and domestic inflation, but not at the same pace as US Treasuries, leading to widening spreads.
• Indonesia's local-currency bond market is particularly sensitive to global capital flow shifts due to its significant foreign ownership.
• Capital outflows from local bond markets can lead to tighter liquidity, making borrowing more expensive for governments and corporations in the region.

New Insights on Bitcoin Accumulation

• Since July 15, wallets holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC have accumulated a total of 113,950 BTC, increasing their combined balance to approximately 5.24 million BTC.
• On September 21, Bitcoin reached $84,000 for the first time since January 31, leading to the liquidation of $262.30 million in short positions within an hour.
• Bitcoin's price briefly dipped to around $83,500 on September 27 but closed near $84,400 on Binance.
• Glassnode identifies the largest cluster of long-term holder supply between $84,000 and $85,000, with the next major resistance level for Bitcoin seen between $95,000 and $97,000.
• The mean Market Value-to-Realized Value (MVRV) price is currently at $96,700, indicating a significant price level for Bitcoin's future movements.