Bitcoin's HODL Wave Hits 63.3%, But Signals Caution for Investors

Bitcoin's share of supply that last moved at least one year ago increased to 63.3% on September 18, up from 62.32% a month earlier, according to data from Maketo's HODL-wave analysis. This rise suggests that a larger portion of Bitcoin is now held in older age bands, indicating that more coins are being held long-term.

The one-to-two-year age band also saw a notable increase, rising to 14.57% from 13.52%. Conversely, the six-to-twelve-month band decreased from 19.10% to 17.53%. This movement reflects a trend of coins aging into older cohorts, but it does not necessarily indicate new buying activity or demand.

Glassnode's data corroborates these findings, showing similar trends in the age distribution of Bitcoin. The percentage of coins that last moved within the past month fell to 7.03%, down from 7.30%, suggesting a slowdown in recent trading activity.

Experts caution that while the rising HODL wave indicates an aging supply, it does not confirm new demand or accumulation. The dynamics of Bitcoin ownership can be complex, as transfers between wallets or lost coins can affect the perceived age of holdings without reflecting actual market behavior.

In summary, while the increase in Bitcoin's HODL wave may appear bullish, it is essential to consider other indicators and market behaviors to assess the true demand for Bitcoin.

New Insights on Altcoin Performance

• As of September 20, 70% of altcoins on Binance are trading above their 200-day averages, a level not seen since October 2025.
• The Altcoin Season Index has dropped to 41, indicating that fewer than half of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days.
• The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased by 3.7% in September, with the altcoin market cap reclaiming over $800 billion for the first time in more than 8 months.
• Bitcoin's trading range has been between $75,600 and $82,000, while Bitcoin dominance stood at 59.34% as of September 20, reflecting a slight increase.
• The ETH/BTC ratio is near 0.03238, having recently tested a downtrend established since 2021, suggesting potential shifts in altcoin dynamics.
• Analyst Darkfost warns that while the market structure has improved, caution is advised as conditions can change rapidly.

New Insights from Bill Miller IV on Bitcoin

• Bill Miller IV, chairman and CEO of Miller Value Partners, expresses unprecedented bullishness on Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin's market cap is currently at a level similar to its last cycle's peak, but the global fiscal situation has deteriorated significantly.
• Miller highlights a widening gap between Bitcoin's price and its fair value, influenced by the US deficit being comparable to Bitcoin's market cap.
• He discusses the implications of global liquidity flows, particularly from Japan and US treasuries, on Bitcoin's valuation.
• Miller addresses the recent outperformance of gold compared to Bitcoin, attributing it to a "narrative lag."
• The conversation also touches on factors like the Fed's interest rate hikes, energy prices, and inflation's impact on capital governance.

New Insights from T. Rowe Price's Blue Macellari

• Blue Macellari, with 20 years of experience in emerging market sovereign and distressed debt, now leads T. Rowe Price’s digital assets business.
• Macellari discusses the return of bond vigilantes and the shift from foreign to domestic financing of US debt.
• She highlights the complexities of comparing Japan and Italy's debt situations to that of the United States.
• Macellari evaluates the potential impact of the GENIUS Act on stablecoin demand for T-bills, questioning if it represents a significant shift or mere speculation.
• Her insights cover various topics including the automation of asset management, the risks associated with 24/7 trading, and the implications of global liquidity on fiscal concerns.