CryptoQuant CEO Declares Bitcoin Bear Market Over as Indicators Signal Recovery

On August 25, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju proclaimed that "the Bitcoin bear cycle is over," supported by a proprietary on-chain indicator that has signaled a recovery similar to one observed in January 2023. This earlier signal preceded a remarkable rally, propelling Bitcoin from around $16,000 to an all-time high exceeding $73,000.

Bitcoin has recently broken out of a consolidation range, climbing from approximately $62,000 to nearly $79,400. During this surge, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced about $1.92 billion in net inflows over five trading days, indicating institutional confidence that the market has hit its bottom.

The key metric at the heart of Ju's announcement is CryptoQuant’s PnL Index, which aggregates three on-chain profitability measures: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), and SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). The crossing of this index above its 365-day moving average is historically indicative of a transition from bear to bull markets.

Additionally, Ju highlighted the firm’s Bull Score metric, which surged from 30 to 80 in just a week, marking the fastest regime shift in a year. Eight of the ten indicators that comprise this score turned bullish during this period.

It is important to note that Ju is not a perpetual bull; he previously pointed out bearish conditions in early 2026, emphasizing market cap dynamics. The current situation draws parallels to January 2023, when the PnL Index indicated a recovery while Bitcoin was trading between $16,000 and $17,000.

While the $1.92 billion in ETF inflows supports the bullish thesis, analysts caution that a single indicator crossing does not guarantee a sustained bull market. For the bear-market-over argument to hold, Bitcoin must maintain price strength above key realized-price levels. A decline below the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $68,500 could lead to panic selling among recent buyers.