CryptoQuant Signals Possible Bitcoin Correction Amid Rising Realized Profits
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has raised concerns about a possible correction in the Bitcoin market as holders cash in profits at unprecedented rates. The firm highlighted a combination of factors: soaring realized profits, declining spot demand, and a persistently negative Coinbase Premium Index, suggesting that a market correction could be imminent.
As of May 4, daily realized profits reached 14,600 BTC, the highest since December 2025. By mid-August, this figure peaked between 23,000 and 25,700 BTC, contributing to approximately 110,000 BTC in net realized profits since mid-August. Additionally, unrealized profit margins soared to 33% by September, a significant increase from earlier in the year.
Despite these profit-taking trends, the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges, has remained negative throughout 2026. This indicates that U.S. buyers are paying less than the global average, leading CryptoQuant to describe recent price rallies as speculative and primarily driven by futures and derivatives rather than genuine spot accumulation.
CryptoQuant's CEO, Ki Young Ju, noted that the market is showing signs of a “bullish cooldown” phase rather than transitioning into a full bear market. The firm emphasizes that exchange inflows are low, suggesting that holders are not rushing to sell their Bitcoin, which could be a bullish indicator.
Moving forward, CryptoQuant identifies the Coinbase Premium Index, exchange inflows, and realized profit velocity as critical indicators to watch. A sudden spike in realized profits could overwhelm order books and lead to cascading liquidations in the futures market, reminiscent of dynamics observed during the 2022 downturn.
Updated 21:02 UTC
New Insights from Dan Tapiero
Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 50T Funds, has stated that a new bull phase has begun in the core assets of the digital asset space. He highlights significant revenue growth in areas such as stablecoins, tokenization, and platforms like Kraken and Hyperliquid.
Tapiero emphasizes the importance of valuation, noting his decision to pass on investments in FTX, Celsius, and BlockFi. He points out that Hyperliquid is currently leading the market in this bull phase.
Additionally, Tapiero discusses the raising of the $500 million 50T Fund and the growing institutional appetite for digital assets, alongside a $42 million investment in MoonPay.
He also touches on macroeconomic themes, including Japan's 30-year bond base and the implications of AI and productivity on the natural rate of interest.
Tapiero concludes by discussing the long-term value of Bitcoin and gold in the context of the debasement trade.
Updated 21:30 UTC
Latest Developments
- Bitcoin registered an intraday low of $82,775.94 on Tuesday.
- The Conference Board's September consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 from 88.6 in August.
- 68.4% of consumers expect higher interest rates over the next 12 months, an increase of 5.2% from the previous month.
- Average expected inflation over the next year rose to 6.1%, with the median increasing to 5.1%.
- August job openings were reported at 7.1 million, down from a revised 7.3 million in July.
- The 10-year Treasury rate was at 5.24% and the two-year at 4.92% on September 28.
- Net inflow for the US-traded spot Bitcoin ETF was $31 million on September 28, smaller than the previous five sessions.
FAQ
What is the main concern raised by CryptoQuant regarding Bitcoin?
CryptoQuant has raised concerns about a possible correction in the Bitcoin market due to holders cashing in profits at unprecedented rates, alongside declining spot demand and a negative Coinbase Premium Index.
What are realized profits, and how have they changed recently?
Realized profits refer to the profits that holders have actually cashed out. As of May 4, daily realized profits reached 14,600 BTC, the highest since December 2025, peaking between 23,000 and 25,700 BTC by mid-August.
What does the Coinbase Premium Index indicate?
The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges. A persistently negative index suggests that U.S. buyers are paying less than the global average, indicating that recent price rallies may be speculative.
What does CryptoQuant's CEO, Ki Young Ju, say about the current market phase?
Ki Young Ju noted that the market is showing signs of a 'bullish cooldown' phase rather than transitioning into a full bear market, emphasizing that exchange inflows are low, which may indicate a bullish sentiment.
What indicators does CryptoQuant suggest monitoring for future market trends?
CryptoQuant identifies the Coinbase Premium Index, exchange inflows, and realized profit velocity as critical indicators to watch, as sudden spikes in realized profits could lead to market corrections.
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