CryptoRank Study Reveals 71% of Prediction Market Users Experience Losses

A new analysis from CryptoRank has unveiled that approximately 71% of users on prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, suffered net losses between 2022 and 2025. Only about 28% of participants managed to turn a profit during this period.

The study indicates that the top 1% of traders captured roughly 95% of total profits, with the top 0.1% alone accounting for 74% of all gains. This trend mirrors findings from multiple studies covering over $67 billion in trade volume across various prediction platforms, which revealed that approximately 69-70% of accounts were unprofitable. Bloomberg's analysis further highlighted that retail users collectively lost around $131 million within the Polymarket ecosystem.

According to CryptoRank, sophisticated market makers and automated trading bots are the primary beneficiaries of these markets. These participants exploit the mechanics of prediction markets rather than relying on superior predictive abilities. Market makers profit by providing liquidity and collecting the spread, while automated bots can quickly identify and exploit mispricings.

The findings suggest that the 71% loss rate among prediction market users is comparable to statistics from traditional finance, where regulators in Europe report that 70-80% of retail accounts lose money. While platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are marketed as innovative tools for information discovery, the data reveals a stark reality: the top 0.1% of traders are reaping the majority of profits, leaving a significant portion of users at a loss.