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Europe Turns to Mexican Diesel Imports Amid Supply Crisis
Europe's diesel market is experiencing unprecedented strain, leading to imports from Mexico for the first time in seven years. This shift highlights the significant impact of the ongoing conflict in Iran and the embargo on Russian energy, which have altered global fuel trade routes.
According to Vortexa's tracking data, Europe's seaborne middle distillate imports from the Middle East Gulf plummeted to just 40,000 barrels per day in May 2026, marking the lowest level in a decade. Russian diesel exports have also dropped dramatically to approximately 234,000 barrels per day, a stark decline from the average of 817,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Before the sanctions imposed due to the 2022-2023 conflict, Russian diesel constituted nearly half of Europe's imports. In April 2026, Northwest Europe's diesel imports from external regions fell to about 1.64 million tonnes, a decade low.
In response to this crisis, Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex has been enhancing its export capacity. The Olmeca refinery, which had been inactive for nearly a decade, has resumed diesel exports. From August 2025 to February 2026, Pemex averaged exports of 36,000 barrels per day, primarily to the US and Caribbean markets.
The longer shipping route from the Gulf of Mexico to Northwest Europe poses challenges compared to the previous, shorter routes from the Middle East or Russian ports. Financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have noted the heightened risk in European middle distillate markets, with projections indicating that European diesel inventories could drop to around 299 million barrels by November 2026, a multi-year low.
As demand typically increases during the winter months, hedge funds are responding by building bullish positions on European diesel futures, with diesel crack spreads in Northwest Europe reaching record levels.
FAQ
Why is Europe importing diesel from Mexico now?
Europe is importing diesel from Mexico for the first time in seven years due to a significant supply crisis caused by the ongoing conflict in Iran and the embargo on Russian energy, which have disrupted traditional fuel trade routes.
What has happened to Russian diesel exports?
Russian diesel exports have dramatically dropped to approximately 234,000 barrels per day, down from an average of 817,000 barrels per day in 2025, largely due to sanctions imposed during the 2022-2023 conflict.
How has the conflict in the Middle East affected Europe's diesel supply?
The conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant decrease in seaborne middle distillate imports from the region, which fell to just 40,000 barrels per day in May 2026, marking the lowest level in a decade.
What measures is Pemex taking to address the diesel demand?
Pemex, Mexico's state-owned oil company, is enhancing its export capacity by resuming diesel exports from the Olmeca refinery, which had been inactive for nearly a decade, and has been averaging exports of 36,000 barrels per day primarily to the US and Caribbean markets.
What are the implications of the current diesel supply crisis for Europe?
The current diesel supply crisis is expected to lead to a drop in European diesel inventories to around 299 million barrels by November 2026, a multi-year low, while demand typically increases during the winter months, prompting hedge funds to build bullish positions on European diesel futures.