Goldman Sachs Projects AI Could Displace 15 Million Jobs in the Next Decade

Goldman Sachs has released a new report projecting that artificial intelligence (AI) could displace approximately 15 million jobs, which equates to about 9% of the US workforce, over the next decade. This estimate marks a significant increase from previous projections of 6% to 7% displacement.

The report, published on October 22, 2026, highlights the potential for job losses particularly in sectors such as technology, management consulting, and graphic design, where AI integration is already leading to monthly job cuts of 10,000 to 15,000. Goldman Sachs attributes these figures to historical data that links productivity growth with job destruction, noting that a 1 percentage point increase in productivity typically raises job destruction rates by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points over a two-year period.

Goldman economist Joseph Briggs emphasized that the effects of AI on employment are not merely theoretical, as current data shows that AI is integrated into about 23% of US establishments. The report also suggests that AI-driven displacement could lead to a 0.6 percentage point increase in the US unemployment rate, particularly during economic downturns when companies are likely to accelerate automation to reduce costs.

Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, Jan Hatzius, provided context for the findings, noting that 85% of job growth over the past 80 years has stemmed from roles that did not exist at the time, indicating that while displacement may occur, new job categories could emerge as a result of technological advancements.

The report warns that younger workers and those in entry-level positions may be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of AI, as these groups are often employed in roles that are more easily automated.