Goldman Sachs Report Highlights AI's Impact on Job Markets in Developed Economies

Goldman Sachs published a report on August 19 detailing how artificial intelligence is measurably slowing job openings growth across major developed economies. The impact is most pronounced in the United States, Germany, and Australia, with sectors heavily exposed to AI automation diverging sharply from historical employment trends.

The numbers paint a stark picture: US call center employment has fallen 39% below its historical trend line, with Canada at 33% below and Germany at 27% below. Beyond call centers, the report identifies software publishing, management consulting, and advertising services as sectors where employment patterns have notably diverged from historical norms.

Employment in information and communication services has cooled significantly, particularly in the US, where trends are tracking close to what Goldman’s models would expect given broader economic conditions. The overall AI adoption rate in major developed economies currently sits at approximately 15-20%. Structural shifts in employment data are showing up well before most companies have fully integrated these tools into their operations.

Entry-level workers are bearing the brunt of these changes. A 10% increase in occupational AI exposure corresponds to a roughly 0.1 percentage point decline in overall annual headcount growth across countries like France, Canada, and the US. For entry-level positions, the same level of AI exposure produces a reduction exceeding 0.6 percentage points in Australia and more than 0.2 percentage points in the United States.

Earlier Goldman Sachs research from 2026 estimated that roughly 300 million jobs globally face exposure to AI automation. In the US specifically, AI was estimated to be reducing monthly payroll growth by approximately 16,000 jobs. Goldman’s data shows the trend accelerating since the second half of 2022, coinciding with the mainstream arrival of generative AI tools.

Apollo Study Insights on AI's Impact on Wages

A recent study from Apollo Global Management reveals that AI is impacting wages rather than job availability. The findings indicate that jobs with high AI exposure experienced a 6.7% lower real wage growth compared to low-exposure jobs after 2023, with no significant change in employment levels.

Service workers have been particularly affected, facing a 24.3% relative wage decline, while those in the bottom earnings quartile saw a 10.7% drop. In contrast, top earners experienced no significant wage effects.

The study estimates an annual labor-income impact of approximately $28 billion, affecting around 5.8 million workers, averaging nearly $4,800 per person in lost wage growth. This situation arises as AI tools give employers more leverage in wage negotiations without necessitating job cuts.

Interestingly, the research also notes that AI is driving a surge in new business formations by lowering startup costs, allowing founders to handle tasks that previously required specialists.