James Check: Bitcoin's Boring Phase Could Signal Bullish Future

James Check, founder of Checkonchain, has presented a compelling argument that Bitcoin's (BTC) transition into a less volatile asset could be its strongest bull case. Speaking on the Honest Money Show on October 27, Check noted that Bitcoin's price fluctuations have diminished to levels reminiscent of summer 2023, suggesting a shift away from its speculative past.

According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin's 1-month realized volatility has fallen to 25.2%. This level of calm is notable, as it has only been observed on about 5% of days since 2015. The yearly volatility band has also contracted significantly, from approximately 55-78% in mid-2022 to around 30-52% now.

Check highlighted that this decline in volatility could indicate a more stable market, with fewer investors expecting Bitcoin to fail. He pointed to the latest bear market drawdown, which saw Bitcoin fall about 54% from its peak of $126,000 in October 2025 to $58,379 by June 30, as evidence of a shallower market correction compared to previous years.

Despite this positive outlook, institutional players like JPMorgan remain hesitant. The bank recently included Bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions but refrained from allocating it in their model portfolios due to concerns over volatility and correlations with other assets. Nonetheless, Check believes that even a modest allocation of 2% across portfolios could attract significant capital into Bitcoin.

However, the current calm also poses risks. Long-term holders who purchased Bitcoin at higher prices may be inclined to sell if the price approaches those levels again. Check anticipates that Bitcoin will continue its quiet ascent until it surpasses $100,000, at which point speculative interest may reignite.