Macro
Jeff Currie Predicts U.S. Gas Prices Could Reach $5 Before Midterm Elections
Jeff Currie, founder and CEO of Real Macro, has warned that average gasoline prices in the U.S. could reach $5 per gallon before the November 3 midterm elections. As of mid-September 2026, the national average was approximately $4.27 to $4.29 per gallon, indicating a potential 17% increase in the coming months.
Currie attributes this forecast to a combination of factors, including refinery outages, geopolitical tensions, and a decline in Russian refining capacity, which have created a supply crunch in refined products like gasoline and diesel. He emphasizes the importance of monitoring the 3-2-1 crack spread, which measures refiners' profits from converting crude oil into refined products. Currently, these spreads are at multi-decade highs, with diesel prices already reaching around $5.80 to $5.90 per gallon.
Additionally, Currie points to currency debasement as a contributing factor to rising fuel prices. As the purchasing power of the dollar decreases, commodity prices tend to rise, exacerbating the situation. This combination of physical scarcity and monetary inflation creates what Currie describes as a "toxic combination" affecting the energy market.
High gasoline prices are likely to influence voter sentiment, especially as they correlate with incumbent party approval ratings. A national average of $5 per gallon by late October would coincide with early voting, potentially shaping campaign narratives and economic perceptions during a critical political period.
FAQ
What is Jeff Currie's prediction for U.S. gas prices before the midterm elections?
Jeff Currie predicts that average gasoline prices in the U.S. could reach $5 per gallon before the November 3 midterm elections.
What factors contribute to the potential increase in gas prices?
Currie attributes the potential increase in gas prices to refinery outages, geopolitical tensions, a decline in Russian refining capacity, and currency debasement.
What is the current national average gas price as of mid-September 2026?
As of mid-September 2026, the national average gas price was approximately $4.27 to $4.29 per gallon.
What is the significance of the 3-2-1 crack spread?
The 3-2-1 crack spread measures refiners' profits from converting crude oil into refined products, and currently, these spreads are at multi-decade highs.
How might high gas prices affect voter sentiment?
High gasoline prices are likely to influence voter sentiment, as they correlate with incumbent party approval ratings, potentially shaping campaign narratives during the election period.