Macro
Kalshi and Polymarket Experience 14% Volume Drop in August Amid World Cup Aftermath
In August, the combined trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket declined by 14.5% to $45.33 billion, marking a significant pullback after a period of sustained growth in the prediction markets sector. This decrease follows a record-breaking July, which saw a volume of $50.59 billion, largely fueled by the FIFA World Cup held from June 11 to July 19.
The World Cup had a pronounced impact on sports betting contracts, which accounted for over 88% of recent activity on Kalshi. Despite the overall downturn, Kalshi managed to maintain 85-90% of its weekly volume as August progressed. In July, Kalshi alone contributed $37.7 billion, representing approximately 74.5% of the total volume across both platforms.
While the NFL preseason markets generated $167.8 million in activity across Kalshi and Polymarket during the week ending August 16, Kalshi was responsible for about 79% of that figure. Notably, Kalshi achieved a milestone by surpassing $10 billion in weekly contract volume for the first time, reaching $10.17 billion for the week ending August 30.
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange focusing heavily on sports, while Polymarket has garnered interest in macro and esports markets, appealing to different audiences within the prediction market landscape.
FAQ
What caused the 14% volume drop in August for Kalshi and Polymarket?
The 14.5% decline in trading volume in August was primarily due to the aftermath of the FIFA World Cup, which had significantly boosted activity in July. The World Cup's conclusion led to a natural pullback in sports betting contracts, which had previously accounted for over 88% of the activity on Kalshi.
How did Kalshi perform in terms of trading volume compared to Polymarket in July?
In July, Kalshi contributed $37.7 billion to the total volume of $50.59 billion across both platforms, representing approximately 74.5% of the overall trading volume.
What percentage of the NFL preseason market activity did Kalshi account for?
During the week ending August 16, Kalshi was responsible for about 79% of the total $167.8 million in activity generated by NFL preseason markets across both Kalshi and Polymarket.
What milestone did Kalshi achieve at the end of August?
Kalshi achieved a significant milestone by surpassing $10 billion in weekly contract volume for the first time, reaching $10.17 billion for the week ending August 30.
What types of markets do Kalshi and Polymarket focus on?
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange with a strong focus on sports betting, while Polymarket has gained interest in macro and esports markets, catering to different audiences within the prediction market landscape.