Kalshi Traders Assign 66% Chance of Trump's Impeachment Before 2028

Prediction market traders on Kalshi have assigned a 66.6% probability that President Donald Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives before January 1, 2028. This contract has attracted over $2.76 million in trading volume, making it one of the platform's most actively traded political markets.

The probability has surged from approximately 30% since the market's launch in November 2025. Notably, the odds spiked above 70% in March 2026, coinciding with critical political developments surrounding the 2026 midterm elections and rising geopolitical tensions. A Democratic majority in the House, currently priced at a 71% chance, is seen as a prerequisite for impeachment proceedings.

Kalshi also operates a separate contract regarding whether Trump will be removed from office, trading at about 27%. This reflects traders' perceptions that while impeachment may be likely, actual removal is less certain.

The upcoming November 2026 midterm elections are expected to be a significant catalyst for these markets. If Republicans maintain control of the House, impeachment odds could drop significantly, while a Democratic victory could push the impeachment probability toward 80% or higher.