Major Banks Adjust Brent Oil Price Forecasts Amid Ongoing Gulf Shipping Disruptions

In light of ongoing shipping disruptions in the Middle East, several major banks have raised their Brent crude oil price forecasts. Commerzbank has increased its year-end Brent forecast to $85 per barrel, up from $75, as reported by EnergyNow.com.

Goldman Sachs has also adjusted its forecasts, raising both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices by $5 per barrel for December 2026 and 2027. The bank anticipates that Brent could reach $85 per barrel and WTI could hit $80 in December, warning that prices could soar past $120 if Gulf production and exports remain significantly constrained.

HSBC has similarly raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel and its 2027 forecast to $85 per barrel. The bank emphasized the critical situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for approximately 20% of the world’s traded petroleum. HSBC noted, “We think the market is adjusting to a disrupted ‘new normal’ in which the strait is neither fully closed nor fully open, but persistently impaired.”

Bank of America has also revised its Brent forecast, predicting prices of $83 per barrel for the second half of this year and $75 for 2027. The bank highlighted potential risks, stating that further disruptions could push prices toward $120 per barrel, while extensive damage to energy infrastructure could drive prices to as high as $150 per barrel.

As a result of these developments, oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-May, with US diesel prices reaching a record high.