Major Banks Adjust Oil Price Forecasts Amid Gulf Shipping Disruptions

Major financial institutions have revised their oil price forecasts in response to significant disruptions in Gulf shipping. Reports indicate that the Strait of Hormuz is experiencing a notable slowdown in vessel traffic, which has implications for global oil prices.

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts for late 2026 and beyond, anticipating that these disruptions will continue into the next year. Other banks, including Citi, UBS, Barclays, and J.P. Morgan, have also increased their outlooks for oil prices.

Market Reactions

The current market dynamics suggest a 14% probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by the end of the year, driven by the ongoing Gulf disruptions. This sentiment reflects a growing concern among market participants regarding the stability of oil supply.

Future Considerations

Observers are closely monitoring developments in the Gulf region, particularly the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical events and actions from key OPEC members could further influence market expectations. Additionally, as the year progresses, shifts in global oil demand or supply, including potential sanctions or conflicts, will be critical in shaping the oil market landscape.

New Developments in Oil Price Forecasts

Yemen’s Houthi forces have seized Perim Island, a strategic location in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which is crucial for global maritime trade, with 10-12% of all seaborne trade passing through it. This advance occurred on September 11, 2026, following the capture of the port city of Mokha the previous day.

The control of Perim Island allows the Houthis to monitor and potentially threaten vessels transiting between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal. Oil prices surged to approximately $100-$105 per barrel, the highest since mid-May, as traders reacted to the increased risk in the region.

The situation is exacerbated by ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian blockades have already posed significant threats to oil exports. With both the Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz facing disruption risks, the global oil supply chain is under considerable strain.

The Houthis have been actively disrupting Red Sea shipping since late 2023, initially targeting vessels linked to Israel amid the Gaza conflict. Their recent territorial gains mark a significant escalation in their capabilities and pose a direct threat to Saudi Arabia's strategic interests in the region.

New Insights from the International Energy Agency (IEA)

According to the IEA's September 2026 Oil Market Report, Russia's oil production has significantly declined, averaging approximately 8.36 million barrels per day in August 2026, marking a drop of 200,000 bpd from July and a staggering 695,000 bpd decline compared to the same month last year.

The report highlights that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have doubled in frequency since early 2026, severely impacting refining capacity. The IEA estimates that these attacks have disrupted refining capacity by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, with peak disruptions exceeding 700,000 bpd.

As a result of these ongoing challenges, the IEA has revised its Russian oil output forecasts, projecting 8.7 million bpd for 2026—a reduction of 125,000 bpd from previous estimates—and 8.6 million bpd for 2027, down by 235,000 bpd.

Additionally, domestic fuel shortages are emerging in Russia due to reduced refining capacity, prompting the government to prioritize crude exports over refined products and impose restrictions on refined product exports to maintain local supply.

Latest Developments in Oil Prices

Oil prices have sharply declined after previously reaching double-digit weekly gains that pushed prices above $100. This drop is occurring in a volatile market influenced by Middle East supply disruptions.

Market analysts suggest that the recent decline may reflect profit-taking and a decrease in supply-risk fears, rather than a fundamental shift in oil market dynamics. Current market pricing indicates a reduced likelihood of crude oil reaching new highs by September 30.

Key figures in the oil industry, such as OPEC’s Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo and IEA’s Fatih Birol, are expected to influence market expectations with their upcoming statements. Additionally, geopolitical events in the Middle East and new data from the Energy Information Administration could significantly impact future oil price trends.