Sierra Club Warns Data Centers Could Drive U.S. Carbon Emissions Up by 42% by 2030

The Sierra Club has raised alarms regarding the environmental impact of data centers, particularly their role in potentially increasing U.S. power-sector carbon emissions by 42% by 2030. This projection, outlined in a recent report, suggests that the rapid growth of data centers—especially those catering to artificial intelligence—could significantly escalate fossil fuel consumption.

According to the analysis, carbon dioxide emissions from U.S. electricity generation could rise by 618 million tons by 2030, bringing total power-sector emissions to approximately 2.1 billion metric tons. This increase is comparable to the annual electricity-related carbon output of over 128 million American homes.

Notably, the majority of this projected emission increase—over 460 million tons—will stem from off-grid natural gas plants, often referred to as “bring-your-own-power” facilities. These are being constructed by tech companies and data center operators to bypass the slow grid interconnection process. In contrast, grid-connected generation is expected to contribute an additional 154 million tons, a 10% rise above baseline projections.

Jeremy Fisher, a principal advisor at the Sierra Club, indicated that the emissions growth estimates have significantly increased compared to projections made 18 months ago. He noted that up to 80% of the energy produced by self-powered data center projects may rely on natural gas, largely due to delays in permitting renewable energy sources.

As discussions unfold, market participants are closely monitoring potential legislative responses, including the possibility of moratoriums on new data center developments in states like Oklahoma and Louisiana. Observers are particularly interested in any formal bills introduced or public statements from state officials regarding the environmental impacts of data centers.