SpaceX Stock Surges 35% Following Lockup Expiration Amid Share Unlock Confusion

SpaceX has experienced a significant surge in its stock price, rising 35% following a lockup expiration that many investors initially feared would lead to a decline. This increase has resulted in an impressive addition of approximately $500 billion to the company's market capitalization.

The journey to this point began on June 12, 2026, when SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, raising around $75 billion. The IPO was marked by a tight initial float of under 5% of outstanding shares, which allowed the stock to climb to nearly $225 shortly after its debut. However, following a disappointing quarterly earnings report that revealed substantial capital expenditures related to AI initiatives, the stock price fell over 40% from its peak, dropping below the initial offering price.

As the first major lockup expiration approached on August 6, 2026, investors were anxious about the potential impact of an additional 911.5 million shares becoming eligible for trading. Contrary to expectations, the stock gained approximately 6% on the expiration day and continued to rise in subsequent sessions.

Upcoming Share Unlocks and Market Volatility

Despite the recent rally, the road ahead for SpaceX may be fraught with volatility as more shares are set to unlock in the coming months. The company has structured its lockup on a staggered schedule, with the tradable float expected to increase to about 40% by December 2026. Notably, Elon Musk's personal stake remains locked until mid-2027, ensuring that the company's largest shareholder cannot sell his shares for nearly another year.

Complicating matters, there has been confusion regarding the exact dates for upcoming share unlocks. Reports from various financial publications have differed on when an additional 319 million shares would unlock, with dates ranging from August 12 to August 20. The correct date, based on the IPO prospectus, is August 20, 2026, which marks the 70th day after the IPO date.

This uncertainty surrounding share unlocks, combined with ongoing concerns about SpaceX's capital expenditures in AI, suggests that while the recent stock surge is notable, investors should remain cautious about future market movements.