TD Cowen Adjusts Bitcoin Year-End Target to $97,500 Amid Market Volatility

TD Cowen has set a new year-end price target for Bitcoin at $97,500, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 25% from its recent trading levels around $78,000. This revision comes as the bank reassesses its earlier, more optimistic projections.

Analyst Lance Vitanza noted that Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $58,400 and $78,000, with significant monthly drawdowns exceeding 20% and a more than 50% decline from previous highs above $126,000. The updated target reflects a cautious expectation for market stabilization rather than a return to previous peaks by December.

Previously, TD Cowen had forecasted Bitcoin to reach $141,277 by the end of 2025 and estimated values between $177,000 and $225,000 for 2026-2027. However, these projections have been significantly lowered, with the new base-case for year-end 2026 now around $100,000, down from approximately $140,000.

The changes are attributed to recent price weaknesses rather than structural issues within the market. Regulatory clarity and broader index inclusion are seen as potential catalysts for recovery.

Additionally, TD Cowen has adjusted its price target for Strategy, a firm known for its corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy, from $400 to $260, maintaining a Buy rating. The bank also initiated coverage on Strive, projecting it will accumulate over 27,100 BTC by the end of 2026, with a share price target of $32, indicating a 33% upside.

The $97,500 target suggests that the narrative of a structurally broken Bitcoin rally may be challenged, as achieving this target would require a genuine recovery in demand from both retail and institutional investors.