Bitcoin Sell Pressure Hits One-Month Low as Long-Term Holders Reduce Profit Taking
Recent analysis from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin's sell-side risk has dropped to less than half of its August peak, signaling a reduction in potential selling pressure. As of September 7, the Sell-Side Risk Ratio stands at 7 basis points per day, down from 16 basis points in August. This decline coincides with long-term holders accounting for only 47% of realized profit, a stark contrast to the 88% observed at August's peak.
The report indicates that while older holders are realizing less profit, a significant block of approximately 1.07 million BTC remains held at acquisition prices between $83,000 and $86,000. This suggests that while the sell-side risk has diminished, the actual volume of Bitcoin sold on exchanges has not decreased proportionally.
Additionally, the market is experiencing a negative cumulative volume delta (CVD) as aggressive selling continues to outweigh buying activity. Despite the easing of selling pressure, the lack of fresh spot buyers raises concerns about the sustainability of Bitcoin's price recovery.
As Bitcoin hovers around $78,257, analysts note that a break above the $80,000 mark is critical for re-establishing liquidity in the market. Institutional demand, particularly from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), has shown positive inflows, yet the overall market remains cautious with mixed signals from derivatives data.
Updated 11:01 UTC
New Insights on Bitcoin ETF Activity
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant outflow of approximately $166.8 million on September 8 and 9, marking the end of a three-week inflow streak.
- On September 8, net outflows reached $46.6 million, while September 9 saw this figure nearly triple to $120.2 million.
- Ark 21Shares’ ARKB led the outflows, losing about $78 million on September 9, followed by Grayscale’s GBTC with $27.2 million and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) with $19.5 million.
- Despite the outflows, Morgan Stanley’s MSBT was an exception, attracting $4.5 million over the same period.
- The total assets under management in US spot Bitcoin ETFs now stand at approximately $99.3 billion, with cumulative net inflows since early 2024 reaching around $55.45 billion.
- GBTC has been experiencing ongoing asset outflows since its conversion from a trust structure, indicating a longer-term trend of negative flow.
- The approaching $100 billion milestone in total ETF assets may renew institutional interest in the category.
Updated 11:01 UTC
Latest Insights on Bitcoin Market Dynamics
- Bitcoin is currently holding near $78,000, with significant macroeconomic events on the horizon that could impact its price.
- Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $100, and the US 10-year Treasury yield was recorded at 4.80% on September 8.
- Glassnode's analysis indicates that Bitcoin's True Market Mean is approximately $76,600, with critical thresholds identified between $62,000 and $86,000.
- Long-term holders' share of realized profit has decreased from 88% to 47%, indicating a shift in market sentiment.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release August inflation data on September 11, which could influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.
- The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 15 and 16 may lead to a decision on interest rates that could further affect Bitcoin's market dynamics.
- The Bank of Japan is also expected to meet on September 17 and 18, with a consensus for a conventional 25-basis-point increase.
- Market conditions suggest that Bitcoin's price could face challenges if macroeconomic indicators do not align favorably.
FAQ
What does the recent analysis from Glassnode indicate about Bitcoin's sell-side risk?
The analysis reveals that Bitcoin's sell-side risk has dropped to less than half of its August peak, indicating a reduction in potential selling pressure.
What is the current Sell-Side Risk Ratio for Bitcoin?
As of September 7, the Sell-Side Risk Ratio stands at 7 basis points per day, down from 16 basis points in August.
How much of the realized profit is accounted for by long-term holders?
Long-term holders currently account for only 47% of realized profit, a significant decrease from the 88% observed at August's peak.
What does the report suggest about the volume of Bitcoin sold on exchanges?
The report suggests that while sell-side risk has diminished, the actual volume of Bitcoin sold on exchanges has not decreased proportionally.
What is critical for re-establishing liquidity in the Bitcoin market?
Analysts note that a break above the $80,000 mark is critical for re-establishing liquidity in the market.
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