CryptoQuant CEO Declares Bitcoin Bear Market Over as Indicators Signal Recovery

On August 25, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju proclaimed that "the Bitcoin bear cycle is over," supported by a proprietary on-chain indicator that has signaled a recovery similar to one observed in January 2023. This earlier signal preceded a remarkable rally, propelling Bitcoin from around $16,000 to an all-time high exceeding $73,000.

Bitcoin has recently broken out of a consolidation range, climbing from approximately $62,000 to nearly $79,400. During this surge, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced about $1.92 billion in net inflows over five trading days, indicating institutional confidence that the market has hit its bottom.

The key metric at the heart of Ju's announcement is CryptoQuant’s PnL Index, which aggregates three on-chain profitability measures: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), and SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). The crossing of this index above its 365-day moving average is historically indicative of a transition from bear to bull markets.

Additionally, Ju highlighted the firm’s Bull Score metric, which surged from 30 to 80 in just a week, marking the fastest regime shift in a year. Eight of the ten indicators that comprise this score turned bullish during this period.

It is important to note that Ju is not a perpetual bull; he previously pointed out bearish conditions in early 2026, emphasizing market cap dynamics. The current situation draws parallels to January 2023, when the PnL Index indicated a recovery while Bitcoin was trading between $16,000 and $17,000.

While the $1.92 billion in ETF inflows supports the bullish thesis, analysts caution that a single indicator crossing does not guarantee a sustained bull market. For the bear-market-over argument to hold, Bitcoin must maintain price strength above key realized-price levels. A decline below the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $68,500 could lead to panic selling among recent buyers.

New Developments in Cryptocurrency at Jackson Hole Symposium

• The Kansas City Fed has included cryptocurrencies and stablecoins in the official agenda for the 2026 Jackson Hole symposium, marking the first time digital currencies are featured in the event's history.
• The symposium will take place from August 27 to 29, 2026, with the theme focusing on financial innovation and its impact on payments and policy.
• Stablecoins currently have a market cap of approximately $304 billion, representing about 1.7% of all money in US bank accounts.
• Stablecoin issuers now hold more short-term US government debt than major creditors like Saudi Arabia and South Korea, according to the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
• The GENIUS Act, signed into law on July 18, 2025, mandates that stablecoin issuers back their tokens with dollars or short-term Treasuries and disclose their holdings monthly.
• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver opening remarks on the first day of the symposium, addressing the implications of stablecoins on monetary policy.

New Insights from Twenty One Capital

Raphael Zagury has been appointed CEO of Twenty One Capital, effective July 20, 2026, and is shifting the company's strategy from merely accumulating Bitcoin to functioning as a diversified operating company.

The firm currently holds 43,514 BTC as of June 30, 2026, which is a significant position in the market.

As of August 2026, Twenty One Capital's market normalized asset value is approximately 0.7x, indicating that investors are paying about 70 cents for every dollar of Bitcoin exposure through the company's stock.

In Q2 2026, the company reported a net loss of $413.5 million, raising questions about the value of owning its stock compared to directly purchasing Bitcoin.

The company is exploring ventures in Bitcoin mining and energy trading to generate cash flows, with a focus on Elektron Energy as part of its operational expansion.

As of early 2026, Twenty One Capital has reported zero operating revenues, indicating that the new strategy is still in its early stages and largely theoretical.